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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 24

Washington Commanders 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model