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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 39

Detroit Lions 3 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to WAS 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-30-D.Virgin.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model