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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 56

Washington Commanders 13 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DET 0, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-M.Hall to DET 2 for 2 yards (30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model