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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 19

Washington Commanders 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model