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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 10 at the 31
Detroit Lions 3 – Washington Commanders 13
What Actually Happened
(:19) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
+0.63 EP
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.18 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.53 EP
KICK
+1.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT
-0.06 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
