4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 13 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP