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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 5

Detroit Lions 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP