4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 87

Washington Commanders 13 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DET 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.26 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 87, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 45, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model