Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Kyle Allen (CAR): -0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
ATL
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:39 FG ATL (11:39) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 3 – CAR 0
- Q1 01:18 TD ATL (1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – CAR 0
- Q2 05:45 FG ATL (5:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 13 – CAR 0
- Q2 01:38 TD ATL (1:38) 30-Q.Ollison right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – CAR 0
- Q3 06:47 TD ATL (6:47) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – CAR 0
- Q4 13:04 FG CAR (13:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 26 – CAR 3
- Q4 07:05 FG ATL (7:05) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 29 – CAR 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%
(11:39) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%
(6:39) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:07) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 35%
(3:42) (Punt formation) 9-R.Allen punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 19 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 54%
(12:07) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at ATL 30 for 8 yards (45-D.Jones).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(5:45) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:07) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, touched at ATL 27, and recovers at ATL 29. 38-K.Barner to ATL 29 for no gain (18-D.White).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%
(:53) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 13-J.Wright to ATL 31 for 19 yards (27-D.Kazee) [97-G.Jarrett].
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%
(11:38) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ATL 47 for -12 yards (99-A.Clayborn).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%
(9:43) (Run formation) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to CAR 43 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly; 95-D.Poe).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(5:02) (Run formation) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to CAR 33 for -1 yards (96-T.Davison, 59-D.Campbell).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 18 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 46%
(2:56) (Pass formation) 9-R.Allen punts 32 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(13:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(7:05) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%
(4:57) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to ATL 27 for 10 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(2:00) 9-R.Allen punts 50 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 35 for 6 yards (53-J.Grace; 41-S.Neasman).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 21.