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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Punt formation) 9-R.Allen punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP