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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model