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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 29

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to ATL 27 for 10 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model