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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to 50, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model