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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 29 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Allen punts 50 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 35 for 6 yards (53-J.Grace; 41-S.Neasman).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.76 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model