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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 7-Y.Koo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP