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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Run formation) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to CAR 33 for -1 yards (96-T.Davison, 59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model