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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:07) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at ATL 30 for 8 yards (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.74 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model