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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LA
49.5%
PIT
50.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA on 7 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LA

Bryce Hager LB Out Shoulder
Brandin Cooks WR Out Concussion
JoJo Natson WR Questionable Illness

PIT

James Conner RB Out Shoulder
Ramon Foster G Out Concussion
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Benny Snell RB Out Knee
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 12
–
PIT 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:53 TD LA (14:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph Aborted. 53-M.Pouncey FUMBLES at PIT 35, RECOVERED by LA-56-D.Fowler at PIT 26. 56-D.Fowler for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 00:40 TD PIT (:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 13-J.Washington for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 01:56 TD PIT (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 32 for -9 yards (79-J.Hargrave). FUMBLES (79-J.Hargrave) [79-J.Hargrave], RECOVERED by PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick at LA 43. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – PIT 13
  • Q3 00:14 FG LA (:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – PIT 14
  • Q4 12:46 SAF LA (12:46) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (99-A.Donald). LA 12 – PIT 14
  • Q4 02:49 FG PIT (2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. LA 12 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 58 yards to LA 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 19-J.Natson to LA 16 for -2 yards (80-J.Holton).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PIT 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 32 for 8 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%

    (7:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to LA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 2 yards (82-J.Mundt). FUMBLES (82-J.Mundt), recovered by PIT-98-V.Williams at PIT 29. 98-V.Williams to PIT 29 for no gain (88-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PIT-98-V.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LA 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at LA 15 for 5 yards (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

    (7:09) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:40) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to LA 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:39) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 24 yards to PIT 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:31) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to PIT 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to LA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 19-J.Natson to LA 34 for 18 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 56-A.Chickillo).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to LA 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short middle intended for 25-D.Long INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Edmunds [37-J.Dangerfield] at LA 33. 33-T.Edmunds to LA 31 for 2 yards (25-D.Long).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 45%

    (5:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 29 yards to LA 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to LA 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-92-O.Adeniyi.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:59) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PIT 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 5 for -1 yards (48-T.Howard).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:57) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to PIT 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 25 for 14 yards (82-J.Mundt).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:55) (Pass formation) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 33-T.Edmunds to PIT 40 for 6 yards (58-C.Littleton, 32-E.Weddle).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (1:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Reynolds (34-Te.Edmunds).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:10) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LA 35, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35.