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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model