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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model