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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:59) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PIT 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 5 for -1 yards (48-T.Howard).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.04 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP