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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 12

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model