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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to LA 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at LA 15 for 5 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model