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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:57) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to PIT 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 25 for 14 yards (82-J.Mundt).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model