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Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 💨 Windy Spread 10.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

WAS
16.7%
BUF
83.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.065 vs Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.748 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Dwayne Haskins in place of Case Keenum)
  • WAS offense: -0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

WAS 15
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 11 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

WAS

Deshazor Everett S Out Ankle
Montae Nicholson S Out Ankle
Chris Thompson RB Out Toe
Vernon Davis TE Out Concussion
Case Keenum QB Out Concussion
Treyvon Hester DT Questionable Elbow

BUF

Maurice Alexander LB Out Knee
Kurt Coleman S Questionable Hamstring
Cody Ford T Questionable Elbow
Levi Wallace CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 9
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 TD BUF (8:25) 17-Jos.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at WAS 1. WAS 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 00:28 FG BUF (:28) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. WAS 0 – BUF 10
  • Q2 10:45 FG WAS (10:45) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – BUF 10
  • Q2 04:52 TD BUF (4:52) 17-Jos.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – BUF 16
  • Q2 00:36 FG WAS (:36) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – BUF 17
  • Q3 01:25 FG WAS (1:25) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 9 – BUF 17
  • Q4 02:26 TD BUF (2:26) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: D.Dawkins. WAS 9 – BUF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:25) 5-T.Way punts 21 yards to BUF 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:19) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to BUF 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-50-T.Vallejo.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (10:45) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (4:52) 17-Jos.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (:36) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (10:58) 20-F.Gore up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (20-L.Collins).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:27) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to BUF 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 15 yards to BUF 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (1:25) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:52) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 28 for no gain (32-S.Perry).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (10:18) 5-T.Way punts 24 yards to BUF 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to WAS 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:02) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to WAS 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 34-W.Smallwood pushed ob at WAS 46 for 2 yards (39-L.Wallace). Dump pass, caught at WAS 45. Penalty on WAS-72-D.Penn, Offensive Holding, declined.