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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 21

Washington Commanders 6 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 3-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model