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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 1
Buffalo Bills 10 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(4:52) 17-Jos.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.30 EP
KICK
+1.67 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT
-0.61 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
