4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 55

Washington Commanders 6 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to BUF 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP