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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 56

Washington Commanders 9 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 34-W.Smallwood pushed ob at WAS 46 for 2 yards (39-L.Wallace). Dump pass, caught at WAS 45. Penalty on WAS-72-D.Penn, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -1.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model