4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 15 yards to BUF 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model