Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 96

Washington Commanders 9 – Buffalo Bills 17

(6:02) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to WAS 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -4.18 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.59 EP
76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 96, worth -5.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model