Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 9

(14:52) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 28 for no gain (32-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model