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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to WAS 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model