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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 16:25 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

OAK
38.9%
HOU
61.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 24
–
HOU 26
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

OAK

Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Shoulder
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Foot

HOU

Will Fuller WR Out Hamstring
Tytus Howard T Out Knee
Greg Mancz C Out Concussion
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Back
Roderick Johnson T Questionable Neck
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Hamstring
Bradley Roby CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 24
–
HOU 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:51 TD LV (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 01:44 TD HOU (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – HOU 6
  • Q2 09:43 TD LV (9:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – HOU 7
  • Q2 01:07 FG HOU (1:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. OAK 14 – HOU 10
  • Q3 10:33 FG HOU (10:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. OAK 14 – HOU 13
  • Q3 08:02 TD LV (8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – HOU 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – HOU 19
  • Q4 10:52 FG LV (10:52) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 24 – HOU 20
  • Q4 06:34 TD HOU (6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby]. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. OAK 24 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:42) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to HOU 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 4.5s

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:28) 9-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. Punt Hangtime: 4.75s

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:37) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 14 yards (17-D.Harris). Punt Hangtime: 4.09s

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:23) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LV 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-D.Harris to LV 24 for 14 yards (51-D.Cole). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 10. Punt Hangtime: 5.16s

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:12) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 15 for no gain (26-N.Lawson). Punt Hangtime: 4.47s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:26) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to LV 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.03s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:12) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-T.Davis to LV 38 for 3 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 38. Punt Hangtime: 4.69s

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:52) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 5 yards (22-K.Nixon). Punt Hangtime: 3.28s

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (1:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:48) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to HOU 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 32 for 13 yards (87-F.Moreau). PENALTY on HOU-58-P.Kalambayi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 32. Punt Hangtime: 4.69s

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end ran ob at HOU 43 for 9 yards (25-E.Harris).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (10:52) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (4:03) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.