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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 15 for no gain (26-N.Lawson). Punt Hangtime: 4.47s

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model