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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model