4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 15

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model