Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 73

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(14:26) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to LV 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.03s

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model