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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 5 yards (22-K.Nixon). Punt Hangtime: 3.28s

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model