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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to HOU 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds. Punt Hangtime: 4.5s

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model