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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.04 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model