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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 14 yards (17-D.Harris). Punt Hangtime: 4.09s

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model