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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 12.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
38.2%
LA
61.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • CIN offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.061 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CIN

Darqueze Dennard CB Out Hamstring
Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Knee
Carl Lawson DE Out Hamstring
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
John Miller G Questionable Groin
Andre Smith T Questionable Ankle

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Ankle
Bryce Hager LB Out Shoulder
Clay Matthews LB Out Jaw
Troy Hill CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 10
–
LA 24

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:44 FG LA (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CIN 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG CIN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 10:49 TD LA (10:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 83-J.Reynolds for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – LA 9
  • Q2 05:22 TD CIN (5:22) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – LA 10
  • Q2 04:11 TD LA (4:11) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Kupp scores on the flea flicker play CIN 10 – LA 16
  • Q3 10:19 TD LA (10:19) 30-T.Gurley left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – LA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 28%

    (12:53) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to LA 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 66%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to LA 13 for 22 yards (23-N.Robey).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 48 for 3 yards (24-T.Rapp).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 56%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to LA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:09) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to CIN 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-44-J.McQuaide.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%

    (4:38) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to LA 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%

    (1:02) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CIN 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to LA 30, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:57) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-57-G.Pratt.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:54) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-57-N.Patrick.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (7:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 19-A.Tate to LA 24 for 27 yards (32-E.Weddle). Penalty on LA-31-D.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (6:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to LA 9 for 18 yards (32-E.Weddle).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-S.Morgan to LA 3 for 3 yards (58-C.Littleton; 20-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:06) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CIN 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 41 for 15 yards (41-K.Young). PENALTY on CIN-57-G.Pratt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Tate (23-N.Robey).