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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Tate (23-N.Robey).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP