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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to LA 13 for 22 yards (23-N.Robey).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model