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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to LA 2, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.32 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model