Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 19-A.Tate to LA 24 for 27 yards (32-E.Weddle). Penalty on LA-31-D.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.76 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.37 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model