Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CIN 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 41 for 15 yards (41-K.Young). PENALTY on CIN-57-G.Pratt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.49 EP
58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model