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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model