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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to CIN 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model